13 May 2007

Recent conclusion o n the arctic warming in the 1920s/1930s :

• Natural fluctuations are a component of the climatic system[1];
• Natural variability is the most likely cause[2];
• Sun has partly caused the warming[3] ;
• The 1930s warm period did not coincide with a positive phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)[4].

The latest IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers[5] paid little attention to the previous statements and summarised the ‘arctic warming’ as it follows:

Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability, and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945.

One century has passed since arctic warming started, but science is still unable to offer a consistent explanation of the warming causes and origins. The investigation attempts to offer clues and explanations about what caused the arctic warming at the beginning of the last century. However, as a Conference paper it is actually only a brief summery of a more detailed workout, which is fully accessible on http://www.arctic-warming.com.  

It will be demonstrated that the location and the timing of the first observed arctic warming in the early 20 th Century can be identified with very high precision. We will shown that the warming started at Spitsbergen, and moreover that the event commenced within a very short time frame of few months in 1918, whereby the most dramatic air temperature increase was in winter 1918/19, lasting particularly significant only until ca. 1922. Over a very short time period from winter 1915/16 to winter 1921/22, the temperatures had risen by about 10ºC, never returning back to pre 1918/19 level, although on a lower level until ca. 1940.

A further highly significant aspect is the Spitsbergen location. On one hand a substantial part of the water masses reaching Spitsbergen have either passed to West coast of Scotland, or is coming from the North Sea, which might have had dramatic consequences back in 1918. These water areas around Great Britain had been under considerable constrain due to naval warfare during World War I (WWI), whereby the ca. 2000 kilometre distance between the two location is not necessarily a bit issue. All the naval battle ground water is carried by ocean currents northwards in the Spitsbergen region within few weeks or a couple of months. Once the ‘composition’ of battle ground seawater structure has changed, it remains changed.

For this investigation it is furthermore of relevance to notice, that only the winter season is covered. This is not only due to the fact that only the winter temperature were the one how rose dramatically, but it covers the time period during which the influence of the sun does not exist over many months, or the direct influence is negligible.

The following investigation shall

• In the first place establish that location and time of the arctic warming can be established with high precision, namely 1918, latest in winter 1918/19.; and
• Show that naval warfare during WWI is a very serious aspirant for having caused this event, and that it is up to the scientific community to confirm, or to prove this prima facie evidence as wrong.

After all, since meteorological observations take place over the last 200 years, not one similar event of this kind was ever registered, neither before 1918, nor thereafter. Presumably no other event can enhance understanding how climate works better than the arctic warming event at the end of WWI.