{"id":135,"date":"2008-08-18T11:07:43","date_gmt":"2008-08-18T11:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/?p=135"},"modified":"2014-08-13T07:23:27","modified_gmt":"2014-08-13T07:23:27","slug":"missing-the-point-on-arctic-warming-o-nordli-ipcc-nasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/?p=135","title":{"rendered":"Missing the Point on Arctic Warming, \u00d8. Nordli, IPCC, NASA ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"20080818_clip_image002[1]\"<\/a>\u201cThe Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot\u201d, reported the The Washington Post, on November 2nd , 1922. B.J. Birkeland (1930) saw the temperature rise, as\u201cprobably be the greatest yet known on earth\u201d<\/em>, and few years later A. W. Ahlmann (1946) called the event a \u2018climatic revolution\u2019[1]<\/a>. This site explains this sudden warming since winter 1918\/19 in a detailed step-by-step approach (Chapter A-C; Links on left-s\"20080818_clip_image004[1]\"<\/a>ide).<\/p>\n

Since about the 1980th it\u00a0is evident that the arctic is warming, after a colder period over four decade again. It is good that this trend receives attention since recently. IPCC has little problems to assert[2]<\/a>:\u00a0The Arctic is expected to experience the greatest rates of warming compared with other world regions.<\/em>\u00a0However, the early warming is not explained, and the little they say is inaccurate[3]<\/a>. Other title it in this way: \u201cNASA’s Earth scientists think ice is hot – a hot topic, that is[4]<\/a>\u201d, but fail to explaining anything either.<\/p>\n

\"20080818_clip_image006[1]\"<\/a>That is a big surprise as there are few, but reasonable data documented. \u00d8. Nordli, a scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, confirms the reliability of the data taken at Spitsbergen[5]<\/a>, stating:\u00a0An abrupt change of temperature occurred at the end of the 1910s transforming the Svalbard climate from a cold phase (1911-1919) to a warm phase (1920-1930).\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0Evidently Spitsbergen saw a temperature increase of more than 10 degrees Celsius\u00a0 from winter 1916 & 1918 to winter 1922\/23 (see:\u00a0Table Spitsbergen-Temp<\/a>\u00a0& the figure \u2018Deviation\u2019). Despite this fact, \u00d8.
\n\"20080818_clip_image008[1]\"<\/a>Nordli made a statement concerning the period 1911 – 2004[6]<\/a>: \u201cDuring winter (DJF) no significant trend in the data is seen, whereas in spring the trend is highly significant, 0.42 \u00b0C per decade.\u201d It seems \u00d8. Nordli missed the most interesting and important point: What cause the temperatures to \u2018explode\u2019 in winter 1918\/19?<\/p>\n

Also IPCC is too superficial in this respect (see above). At least they should have paid attention to the advise,\u00a0 V.F. Zakharov submitted to the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) in 1997[7]<\/a>, asking:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Why are the maximum climate fluctuations confined to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic?\u201d;<\/em><\/li>\n
  2. Why are these fluctuations pronounced, first of all, right here?\u201d;<\/em><\/li>\n
  3. Should the Atlantic sector of the Arctic be considered as a center of some kind, a source of climate change over the Hemisphere?\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Also a work from Sergey V. Pisarev (1997)[8]<\/a>\u00a0indicates that the impact of the sea may require more attention.<\/p>\n

    Actually, this site is carefully elaborating the reasons for the sudden commencement of the arctic warming since winter 1918\/19, concluding, that the source had been the seas around the Spitsbergen archipelagos as far as not covered by sea ice according the seasons. When \u00d8. Nordli observes:\u00a0\u201cThe<\/em>\u00a0cold phase was characterized by clear sky and pronounced inversions, whereas the<\/em>\u00a0warm phase was characterized by overcast sky and weaker and rarer inversions<\/em>[9]<\/a>\u201d<\/em>, the answer is easy, for the winter season at least: It is the sea.<\/p>\n

    By A. Bernaerts\/Aug.2008<\/p>\n

    \n
    \n

    [1]\u00a0See Chapter A, Introduction,\u00a0Chapter A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [2]\u00a0IPCC, 2007a: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.<\/a>Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning (eds.)].<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [3]\u00a0Ditto: Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability, and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [4]http:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/vision\/earth\/environment\/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html<\/a>;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [5]\u00a0\u00d8yvind Nordli, Year ?, \u201cTemperature variations at Svalbard during the last century\u201d
    \nat:\u00a0    http:\/\/www.nordicspace.net\/PDF\/NSA106.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [6]\u00a0\u00d8yvind Nordli, 2005, \u201eLong-term Temperature Trends and Variability at Svalbard (1911 \u2013 2004)\u201c, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 06939, 2005.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [7]\u00a0Zakharov, V.F.; 1997, \u2018Sea Ice in the Climate System\u2019, Arctic Climate System Study, WMO\/TD-No. 782, in the section \u201cOn the nature of \u2018polar forcing\u2019\u201d, p. 71.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [8]\u00a0Sergey V. Pisarev , 1997, >”Arctic Warming” During 1920-40: A Brief Review of Old Russian Publications<,http:\/\/mclean.ch\/climate\/Arctic_1920_40.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n

    [9]\u00a0\u00d8yvind Nordli, 2005, \u201eLong-term Temperature Trends and Variability at Svalbard (1911 \u2013 2004)\u201c, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 06939, 2005.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u201cThe Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot\u201d, reported the The Washington Post, on November 2nd , 1922. B.J. Birkeland (1930) saw the temperature rise, as\u201cprobably be the greatest yet known on earth\u201d, and few years later A. W. Ahlmann (1946)…Read more Missing the Point on Arctic Warming, \u00d8. Nordli, IPCC, NASA ?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=135"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":247,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions\/247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arctic-warming.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}